Reality Backtesting

A claim is not judged by how good it sounds. It is judged by writing it down before the outcome, then checking it against what actually happened.

In practice: predictions are dated before results exist. Windows are set in advance and never moved after the fact. A missed window is recorded as missed. A claim that fails its own test is killed, and the kill stays public.

This page is deliberately short. The method is best read in operation, in the ledger, where every entry is a backtest running in public.